God Spared Us But Not Because We Are Smart
The leading political scientists of Russia and the region continue to consider the processes of the South Caucasus as a horizontal confrontation, i.e. the old West-East model in which the subject of the political debate and fight is the “Eurasian corridor”.
Apparently, the consciousness of the political scientists, analysts and policy makers, as well as massive consciousness is subject to inertia which is worse than the confusion of actual politicians.
The problem is that the paradigm of the conflict in the South Caucasus has transformed from the logic of “corridor” to the logic of “crossroad”.
The political polygon of the “corridor” has its own rules of development. Everything is determined by what is considered a political subject and what is considered an object. The crucial thing was that the famous infrastructure projects transformed from subjects to objects of politics, and these states became subjects with regard to the infrastructure and other geopolitical projects.
Those who have followed attentively the political processes of these two states will state that it was a tragedy for the elites of those countries.
God spared us but not because we are so smart. Simply we were not involved in the projects that are intended to establish a transit and service social-economic model in the South Caucasus, possibly a completed transit and service geo-civilization.
The problem is that the countries aspiring to the transit function do not have the right to a unilateral orientation. There is no need to be politicians or political scientists to understand this.
As a result, oilless and landlocked Armenia is developing its relations with Russia, Iran and the United States at the same time. These cannot be considered strategic relations but there is something in them that creates commitment and interest.
It is clear that Armenia is the only country in the South Caucasus which is capable of performing the functions of the strategic partner. However, Armenia performs those functions as Russia’s vassal. Therefore, Armenia is facing such a harmful political situation.
Moreover, the “strategic fun” is that Karabakh can perform the functions of a strategic ally. And there is nothing mythical in this unless we take into account the Armenian political mentality.
The “junction” mentality differs significantly from the “corridor” mentality though a lot of liberal actors are always tempted to present the one for the other, depending on the welfare needs of the ruling elites.
However, the South Caucasus has never been an end in itself in different strategies. This is about the governance and control of a bigger region. The geopolitical paradigm in the circles in the “Greater Near East” and Central Asia is changing with the growing strategy of the “crossroad”.
The South Caucasus has transformed from a geopolitical self-sufficiency to the province of the Black Sea Caucasus region. The United States and NATO have launched a political attack in the Black Sea, which indicates the strengthening military component. There are a lot of problems in these directions, many of them have not been resolved.
The Black Sea is becoming a “central arena” for suppressing the Russian expansion. Nothing is left to Russia to do but to propose a “pacifist road”, or more exactly, to turn the region to a neutral area. However, this is already a belated proposal.
Russia cannot keep its influence on the South Caucasus and will have to give up. It will be allowed to pretend that it still has presence in the region but it will be an illusion.
The United States does not have a final decision on what is going to happen to the South Caucasus. Apparently, the United States is trying to place a bid on Georgia and integrate Armenia with NATO and the European Union.
The problem of the United States is that if one of the South Caucasus countries is left out of the Atlantic camp, the program of integration of the region will be thwarted.
Europe continues to adjust itself to this region, remaining its main sponsor.